Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
